A Columbine a Day?

So let's talk about what makes sense for our children. Let's talk about how we might end the thirteen gun deaths a day - a daily Columbine, 365 days a year.

Bill Bradley

I'd heard that line enough times that I thought I'd figure out what it really meant. "Thirteen gun deaths" and "Columbine" implies both homicides and suicides. The word 'child' isn't explicitly defined as to age bracket. This slick wording seemed to suggest a liar figuring.

I don't trust statistics coming from either gun control or Second Amendment sites. I try to go to neutral third parties. From the United States Bureau of Justice...

Homicides

       Number of victims
 
        Under 14  14-17  18-24  25-34  35-49   50+         65+
 
  1976      872    757   3861   4918   4390   3737        1226
 
  1977      885    807   4064   5128   4322   3672        1179
 
  1978      892    833   4192   5449   4365   3565        1145
 
  1979      844    844   4785   6109   4648   3834        1279
 
  1980      863    950   5146   6845   4885   3957        1345
 
  1981      892    796   4768   6802   4835   4010        1276
 
  1982      944    743   4436   6190   4625   3740        1287
 
  1983      858    678   4044   5858   4260   3311        1174
 
  1984      833    630   3842   5634   4210   3112        1132
 
  1985      857    716   3796   5808   4302   3087        1133
 
  1986      961    758   4335   6445   4521   3105        1229
 
  1987      880    834   4289   6289   4376   3059        1292
 
  1988     1003    934   4438   6605   4433   2933        1269
 
  1989     1023   1131   4834   6740   4591   2889        1149
 
  1990      999   1296   5650   7215   5085   2829        1127
 
  1991     1087   1487   6304   7178   5314   2901        1137
 
  1992     1026   1537   6055   6856   5217   2741        1105
 
  1993     1167   1674   6364   6903   5292   2798        1138
 
  1994     1088   1575   6099   6500   5092   2570        1019
 
  1995     1019   1601   5459   5757   4832   2580        1000
 
  1996     1051   1354   4886   5069   4657   2350         876
 
  1997      943   1115   4721   4619   4233   2231         866
 
  1998      956    963   4316   4239   4061   2017         764

956 children a day divided by 365 days gives 2.6 children a day in 1998, plus another 2.6 teens. However, this is homicides by any method, not Bill Bradley's "gun deaths." How many of these were gun deaths? I found another table...

                    Gun homicides             Nongun homicides
Age of victim      Number     Percent        Number     Percent
            0        226        3.9%          5567       96.1%
            1        262        7.9%          3061       92.1%
            2        328       12.1%          2388       87.9%
            3        289       17.0%          1407       83.0%
            4        273       22.6%           934       77.4%
            5        252       27.5%           666       72.5%
            6        255       35.4%           466       64.6%
            7        232       34.0%           451       66.0%
            8        241       37.2%           406       62.8%
            9        250       39.6%           381       60.4%
           10        294       46.6%           337       53.4%
           11        325       49.2%           335       50.8%
           12        515       54.8%           425       45.2%
           13        845       61.4%           531       38.6%
           14       1721       69.0%           774       31.0%
           15       3144       72.8%          1176       27.2%
           16       5290       75.3%          1737       24.7%
           17       7785       76.5%          2386       23.5%
           18       9798       76.1%          3085       23.9%
           19      11781       75.7%          3774       24.3%
           20      12132       73.8%          4318       26.2%
           21      12073       73.9%          4274       26.1%
           22      12326       73.7%          4404       26.3%
           23      11955       72.2%          4605       27.8%
           24      11592       71.7%          4566       28.3%
           25      12703       71.3%          5124       28.7%
           26      11027       70.3%          4665       29.7%
           27      10609       70.1%          4518       29.9%
           28       9937       69.7%          4322       30.3%
           29       9599       68.1%          4490       31.9%
           30      10185       67.2%          4981       32.8%
           31       8404       68.8%          3815       31.2%
           32       8485       68.0%          3989       32.0%
           33       7561       67.7%          3615       32.3%
           34       7409       66.6%          3715       33.4%
           35       7488       65.3%          3986       34.7%
           36       6305       65.5%          3322       34.5%
           37       5943       65.5%          3124       34.5%
           38       5775       65.5%          3036       34.5%
           39       5298       64.7%          2888       35.3%
           40       5387       62.9%          3177       37.1%
           41       4535       64.2%          2534       35.8%
           42       4645       64.2%          2592       35.8%
           43       4005       64.6%          2193       35.4%
           44       3587       63.8%          2039       36.2%
           45       3686       62.5%          2215       37.5%
           46       3206       62.6%          1916       37.4%
           47       3054       61.3%          1927       38.7%
           48       2706       61.8%          1672       38.2%
           49       2658       61.8%          1643       38.2%
           50       2771       58.0%          2010       42.0%
           51       2146       58.7%          1513       41.3%
           52       2237       58.1%          1614       41.9%
           53       2029       57.9%          1475       42.1%
           54       1918       57.2%          1435       42.8%
           55       1852       55.5%          1482       44.5%
           56       1663       55.0%          1359       45.0%
           57       1641       56.2%          1277       43.8%
           58       1383       54.7%          1144       45.3%
           59       1330       53.9%          1137       46.1%
           60       1424       52.6%          1281       47.4%
           61       1160       51.5%          1093       48.5%
           62       1292       51.9%          1198       48.1%
           63       1049       48.9%          1096       51.1%
           64        914       48.8%           960       51.2%
           65        993       45.1%          1209       54.9%
           66        757       48.4%           808       51.6%
           67        825       47.6%           907       52.4%
           68        723       45.8%           856       54.2%
           69        638       44.4%           799       55.6%
           70        668       41.9%           927       58.1%
           71        522       40.3%           772       59.7%
           72        556       38.4%           892       61.6%
           73        457       39.3%           706       60.7%
           74        408       35.0%           757       65.0%
           75        377       31.9%           806       68.1%
           76        354       34.9%           662       65.1%
           77        303       33.2%           609       66.8%
           78        279       31.0%           620       69.0%
           79        261       30.4%           598       69.6%
           80        193       22.8%           655       77.2%
           81        181       25.0%           541       75.0%
           82        184       26.3%           513       73.7%
           83        150       25.1%           449       74.9%
           84        116       22.4%           404       77.6%
           85        102       21.0%           383       79.0%
           86         97       20.3%           380       79.7%
           87         61       17.2%           296       82.8%
           88         41       14.3%           245       85.7%
           89         55       25.8%           160       74.2%
           90         40       17.5%           188       82.5% 
         
Source: FBI, Supplementary Homicide Reports, 1976-98.
See the methodology section in Additional Information About
the Data for weighting and imputation procedures used.

This is by age, not by age group. So how many of the 2.6 homicides per day were gun homicides? Umm... Would you believe 13? If you add up the 0 to 13 age groups, you get 4587 were committed with guns, which comes out to 12.57 a day.

One has to read the fine print. "Source: FBI, Supplementary Homicide Reports, 1976-98" This is 23 years of gun deaths. The 13 gun deaths a day is off by a factor of 23 if one counts only homicides of children under 13.

Using this 23 year average, 20.91% of child homicides are performed with a gun, 74.71% of teen homicides. (Aged 14 - 17 in the BoJ categories.) Thus, of Bradley's 13 hypothetical children, there are two and a half gun homicides of people too young to vote.

Suicides

Where are the other 10.5? 1996 statistics show 2724 gun suicides in the age 15 - 24 category, for a rate of 12.0 per 100,000. For 15 through 17 year olds, assuming the rate is flat over that age category (a bad assumption, but the best I can do given data is grouped in 10 year intervals) this would come to 2 suicides per day. (2724 * .3 / 366 = 2.23 The .3 is pulling 3 years out of a 10 year age group. As the statistics I'm using are from 1996, a leap year, one divides by 366 for a daily rate.) My source does not break out suicides in the 0 - 14 age group by method. Assuming they use the same methods as teens (a questionable assumption, but the child homicide rate is low enough that little error would be inserted), there would be a child gun suicide every other day.
Gun
Gun Rate
Gun %
Non Gun
Non Gun Rate
Suicides
18,166
6.8
58.8%
12,737
4.8
Young (15 - 24 Years)
2,724
7.5
62.5%
1,634
4.5
Old
4,184
12.4
71.5%
1,671
4.9
Male
15,808
12.2
63.2%
9,190
7.1
Female
2,358
1.7
39.39%
3,547
2.6
Suicide Statistics, USA, 1996

5 - 14
12 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85+
0.8
12.0
14.5
15.5
14.9
13.7
15.0
20.0
20.2
1996 Suicide Rate by Age Group

Official data source: Peters, K.D., & Murphy, S.L., (1998). Deaths: Final data for 1996. National Vital Statistics Report 47(9). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 99-1120. [Data published in the 1996 annual volume of Vital Statistics of the United States.]

Liars Sure Figure?

Age --->
0 - 13
14 - 17
Totals
Gun Homicides
0.5
2
2.5
Gun Suicides
0.5
2
2.5
Totals
1
4
5
Death Rate Per Day

.5 + 2 + .5 + 2 = 13? One missing factor is gun accidents. I have been unable to locate gun accidents broken out by age, but the overall accident rate is so far under homicide and suicide rates, it does not alter the round figures math.

5 = 13? This might not technically be a lie. "A Columbine a day" likely originated with Bill Clinton. It would depend on what your definition of "child" is. If you use 21 years as your break point, it might come out about right. If you use the DoJ's 13 years and under, you get 1 gun death a day. Thus, the claim of 13 child gun deaths a day might not technically be a lie, but well over half of these "children" are old enough to marry, vote and join the army.

Nitpicking definitions aside, what are the real threats to our young and not-quite-young?
Youth Homicide Rates, 1976 - 1998

There has been no sudden child homicide emergency. The true children, plotted in red, age 13 and under, have had a remarkably flat curve. The sudden "protect our children" cry is a expedient tactic to exploit propaganda opportunities. The teen curve is moving with the adults. There was a peak in the early 1990s, likely drug related, and the teens were involved. The height of the emergency is past. The sudden concern for the children came after the crisis. Clearly, the teen problem is an adult problem. Focusing political energy into child oriented precautions isn't the solution there.
US Homicide Rates by Age, With Elders
 

Stepping further back, it becomes even clearer that the problem of the early 90s was an adult problem, not a children's problem. While the teens did share the early 90s peak, the 18 - 24 age group showed it even stronger, with the 25 - 34 group reflecting it as well. Focusing on the young adults, not on the children, seems prudent. 
under 14
14 - 17
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 49
50+
65+
Overall
1976
1.8
4.5
13.8
15.4
12.6
6.8
5.4
9
1977
1.9
4.9
14.3
15.5
12.3
6.6
5.1
9.1
1978
1.9
5.1
14.6
16.1
12.2
6.3
4.8
9.2
1979
1.8
5.2
16.5
17.5
12.8
6.7
5.3
10
1980
1.8
5.9
17.5
18.5
13.2
6.8
5.3
10.7
1981
1.9
5
16
17.5
13
6.7
4.9
10.3
1982
2
4.8
15
15.7
11.9
6.2
4.8
9.6
1983
1.8
4.5
13.7
14.6
10.5
5.5
4.3
9.6
1984
1.7
4.2
13.2
13.7
10
5.1
4.1
8.4
1985
1.8
4.9
13.2
13.9
9.9
5
4.2
8.4
1986
2
5.2
15.3
15.2
10
5
4.2
9
1987
1.8
5.7
15.4
14.6
9.4
4.9
4.3
8.7
1988
2
6.5
16.3
15.2
9.2
4.7
4.2
9
1989
2
7.9
18.1
15.5
9.2
4.6
3.7
9.3
1990
2
9.8
21.1
16.8
9.9
4.5
3.6
10
1991
2.1
11.1
23.9
16.7
10
4.5
3.6
10.5
1992
2
11.3
23.4
16.1
9.4
4.2
3.4
10
1993
2.2
12.1
24.4
16.1
9.5
4.2
3.5
10.1
1994
2
11.2
23.6
15.4
8.9
3.8
3.1
9.6
1995
1.9
11
21.5
13.9
8.2
3.8
3
8.7
1996
1.9
9.1
19.5
12.3
7.7
3.4
2.6
7.9
1997
1.7
7.3
19.1
11.4
6.8
3.2
2.5
7.4
1998
1.7
6.2
17.4
10.6
6.5
2.8
2.2
6.3
United States Homicide Rates by Age

Most child homicides, 79% for children 13 and younger, are not gun homicides. Children are too weak to protect themselves. The murderers do not need guns to succeed. They use other weapons by choice. To protect the true children, one must address the underlying causes. One has to focus on the people on either side of the weapon, not the weapon.

The US suicide rate is comparable or slightly below the suicide rate of other countries, though a large portion of our suicides use guns. Are we interested in preventing gun suicide or preventing suicide? Are we trying to force a change in method, or save lives? Again, to succeed in preventing suicide, one must address the person involved, the underlying causes. One cannot remove all means available.

John Lott's More Guns Less Crime shows homicide rates going down as concealed carry rates increase. More guns, less homicide. He also shows, from an economist's standpoint, many of the underlying causes of homicide. The government can prevent homicides by improving arrest rates, increasing prision population, improving the economy, and altering population density. It can be done, but it is expensive, and there are limits to what can be achieved with realistic tax rates. If one must focus on the weapon, not the underlying causes, again, the answer is not gun control. The answer is concealed carry shall issue laws. We must enforce the Second Amendment.

Gun control cannot prevent liars from figuring. Unfortunately, the gun control lies can kill. In focusing public attention and political energy on the wrong solution, the liars are blocking action on real and lethal problems. Some of the blood lies on the hands of the liars.
Liars Sure Figure

More Guns Less Crime - USA - World
On Killing - White House Study - Children